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Dollar Destruction Hysteria: Why the Panic is Wrong, Again

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Seems it's that time of year again. It was just May 4 of 2022 when I felt compelled to talk about the "imploding" US dollar.

You can find that video and article here...

Inflation Crisis and the Imploding Dollar: Panic of the Profiteers

What inspired me to revisit the topic is the rise of similar internet and TV chatter in the past month all centered around this kind of language: the dollar is going to lose its vital status as the top global reserve currency.

This immediately brings up important questions for reasonable and thoughtful investors who don't want to overreact to the hype of what I am now calling "Dollar Destruction Hysteria" or DDH.

How do they know?

What are their credentials for making this claim?

And what are they selling?

Charts, Data, Graphs and Expert Sources

As a voracious student of statistics, probability, and complex systems, I'm constantly on guard for the misuses and abuses of data, especially in visual form which tends to captivate and convince the untrained eye.

I'm even watching my own brain and biases closely to be careful I don't fall for bad data views and cherry-picked narratives.

In the video that accompanies this article, I review the history of US dollar narratives and their actual outcomes.

And since I've been watching and participating in this epic saga for nearly 30 years (I was a high-volume institutional FX trader for a decade after the introduction of the euro), I'm happy to share my record of views and where I've been wrong.

I've been wrong about a lot of companies and stocks over the years. But I've nailed the broader FX story and why the dollar is not going to heck in a handbasket.

I've even addressed the very scary topic of unlimited US government borrowing...

Why the National Debt is Irrelevant

Could I be wrong going forward? Certainly. But it's a deceptively complex topic with multiple nonlinear dynamics and even if you don't agree with my conclusions, you will learn a lot from my analysis, past and present.

Watch the video and see the sources and tools I'm using so you can make your own intelligent conclusions about US debt, growth, inflation, innovation, and wealth -- over investment decades, not internet minutes.

I explain why just about any crisis of the past few decades, even the current Regional Bank (KRE - Free Report) disaster, doesn’t damage the dollar.

Join me and equip your mind with most of the dynamics you'll need to sort out the nonsense and calculate the trajectories.

I did this unscripted, so it's not the cleanest presentation. But I give you facts and data pathways that you must engage to proceed amidst the hand wringing and wailing of those looking for views and subscriptions.

Our human nature loves a good gloom-and-doom story. But you are clearly smarter than to make decisions based on them.

Start here with my Twitter thread from April 27 to follow along in the video presentation...

DDH: The Relativity of US Debt, Growth, Inflation, Innovation, and Wealth

And after you do that, come back and learn about the new innovation drivers of US growth and wealth -- after a century of natural resource and real estate development dominance.

You can clearly see this as the Technology Sector dominates the market capitalization of the S&P 500. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ - Free Report) not only moves the market, it is the market.

And while another gloom-doom scenario about the US is that manufacturing has vanished, technology innovation has the strong potential to bring it back as we are seeing in semiconductors and related industries.

I just wrote a couple of pieces on ChatGPT and why NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) was so important to AI even before anyone heard of the chatterbox that ate the internet...

Alphabet Playing Catchup to Microsoft

In that piece, you'll learn why the Godfather of AI has had enough and all the players are on notice about ChatGPT and its impacts.

And you'll gain insight on why Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) must be careful how they deploy AI, while NVIDIA just keeps building the tools for scientific discovery and exponential advancements.

Kevin Cook is a Senior Stock Strategist for Zacks Investment Research where he runs the TAZR Trader and Healthcare Innovators portfolios.

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